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The recent slump in oil prices has had a big impact on global
markets. The fundamentals that affect oil prices - a supply glut
and the strengthening dollar - remain unchanged. That means oil
prices will continue to face pressure. The wild volatility of oil
prices is mainly due to market speculation, as well as expectations
for weak growth of the global economy. In fact, the problem of
oversupply in the global coal market is much more serious than the
unbalanced supply in the oil market, but coal prices do not
fluctuate as violently as those of oil. That is because the oil
market is more dynamic, and more prone to speculation. The gloomy
expectations for the global economy, especially for emerging
markets, may cause oil prices to fall further. But the deep fall in
oil prices means they could rebound sharply
later.
The current price of around $30 per barrel is not likely to persist for long given the cost pressure on major oil producers. Globally, demand for oil may continue to rise slightly. But on the supply side, with producers set to cut investment significantly and a looming wave of bankruptcies among oil-related companies, oil supply will fall in the future. Once the market generally expects a new balance in oil supply and demand to take place, oil prices may return to around $50 per barrel, possibly later in the year.
Given the current circumstances, the impact of China on global markets should not be underestimated. As well as being the second-largest economy in the word, China influences the global market due to the scale of its demand and demand dynamics. China produces and consumes nearly 50 percent of the world's coal, steel and cement and used to account for 40-60 percent of the total increase in global demand, so the market is understandably concerned about possible changes in energy demand in China. China's oil consumption accounts for between 11 and 12 percent of the world's total, and its oil imports remain strong. The country imported 340 million tons of crude oil in 2015, up 8.8 percent year-on-year, a new high. But the import value dropped 40.5 percent from a year ago to stand at 833.28 billion yuan ($126.71 billion). As the world's largest oil importer, China is one of the countries that benefits the most from low oil prices. Given the current import volume, China could save 1.1 trillion yuan in a year, equivalent to 10 percent of the country's annual tax revenue or around 1,100 billion yuan, given that oil prices have dropped to $27 per barrel.
The decline in oil prices is generally good for China. But wild swings in oil prices, and a possible price rise in the future, could have a big negative impact on the country's economy.
One of the strategies to offset the impact of wild fluctuations in oil prices is to increase the country's oil reserves. The Chinese government plans to build up strategic oil reserves equivalent to 90 days' worth of net import demand by 2020. Fortunately for China, the country can increase reserves substantially when the prices are low. Although currently there are not enough facilities for strategic oil reserves in China, the country is likely to build the necessary facilities by 2020 if the low prices persist.
Moreover, as over 50 percent of China's oil imports come from countries in the Middle East, China could take the opportunity to diversify its oil imports in a buyer's market. For example, it could increase imports from Russia. Official data also points to such trends. China's imports of crude oil from Russia reached 3.9 million tons in November 2015, a rise of 18 percent year-on-year, while imports from Saudi Arabia dropped 8.6 percent to 3.6 million tons.
However, China's dependence on oil imports will still continue to rise considerably. The real solution to avoiding side effects from oil price swings in the international market is to find alternative energy sources. Looking ahead, options that could help push down oil prices are not shale oil but new energies such as solar power, energy storage technology and technological breakthroughs in electric cars. The bottleneck affecting development of new energy and electric cars is energy storage technology, so development in this area is vital.
Stability in the Middle East is also a key factor in the current low oil prices. If an OPEC member needs to shrink fiscal expenditures due to the low prices, it could lead to social chaos and then wider geopolitical strife. Geopolitics can always have a sudden impact on oil prices. Therefore, Chinese policymakers should keep a close eye on the situation and get involved in maintaining stability in the Middle East.
来源：《Global Times》
The current price of around $30 per barrel is not likely to persist for long given the cost pressure on major oil producers. Globally, demand for oil may continue to rise slightly. But on the supply side, with producers set to cut investment significantly and a looming wave of bankruptcies among oil-related companies, oil supply will fall in the future. Once the market generally expects a new balance in oil supply and demand to take place, oil prices may return to around $50 per barrel, possibly later in the year.
Given the current circumstances, the impact of China on global markets should not be underestimated. As well as being the second-largest economy in the word, China influences the global market due to the scale of its demand and demand dynamics. China produces and consumes nearly 50 percent of the world's coal, steel and cement and used to account for 40-60 percent of the total increase in global demand, so the market is understandably concerned about possible changes in energy demand in China. China's oil consumption accounts for between 11 and 12 percent of the world's total, and its oil imports remain strong. The country imported 340 million tons of crude oil in 2015, up 8.8 percent year-on-year, a new high. But the import value dropped 40.5 percent from a year ago to stand at 833.28 billion yuan ($126.71 billion). As the world's largest oil importer, China is one of the countries that benefits the most from low oil prices. Given the current import volume, China could save 1.1 trillion yuan in a year, equivalent to 10 percent of the country's annual tax revenue or around 1,100 billion yuan, given that oil prices have dropped to $27 per barrel.
The decline in oil prices is generally good for China. But wild swings in oil prices, and a possible price rise in the future, could have a big negative impact on the country's economy.
One of the strategies to offset the impact of wild fluctuations in oil prices is to increase the country's oil reserves. The Chinese government plans to build up strategic oil reserves equivalent to 90 days' worth of net import demand by 2020. Fortunately for China, the country can increase reserves substantially when the prices are low. Although currently there are not enough facilities for strategic oil reserves in China, the country is likely to build the necessary facilities by 2020 if the low prices persist.
Moreover, as over 50 percent of China's oil imports come from countries in the Middle East, China could take the opportunity to diversify its oil imports in a buyer's market. For example, it could increase imports from Russia. Official data also points to such trends. China's imports of crude oil from Russia reached 3.9 million tons in November 2015, a rise of 18 percent year-on-year, while imports from Saudi Arabia dropped 8.6 percent to 3.6 million tons.
However, China's dependence on oil imports will still continue to rise considerably. The real solution to avoiding side effects from oil price swings in the international market is to find alternative energy sources. Looking ahead, options that could help push down oil prices are not shale oil but new energies such as solar power, energy storage technology and technological breakthroughs in electric cars. The bottleneck affecting development of new energy and electric cars is energy storage technology, so development in this area is vital.
Stability in the Middle East is also a key factor in the current low oil prices. If an OPEC member needs to shrink fiscal expenditures due to the low prices, it could lead to social chaos and then wider geopolitical strife. Geopolitics can always have a sudden impact on oil prices. Therefore, Chinese policymakers should keep a close eye on the situation and get involved in maintaining stability in the Middle East.
来源：《Global Times》
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